Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.2)
(71)
35,575
U.S. stocks moved mostly higher during trading on Thursday, as trading resumed
Nifty
(0.2)
(20)
10,750
following the July 4th holiday on Wednesday. The major averages fluctuated over
Mid Cap
(0.7)
(110)
15,306
the course of the trading session before closing firmly in positive territory.The Dow
Small Cap
(0.4)
(64)
15,986
Jones was increased by 0.8% to 24,357 and the Nasdaq rose by 1.1% to 7,586.
Bankex
0.1
42
29,368
U.K. stocks were modestly higher on Thursday as investors eyed a speech from Bank
of England Governor Mark Carney for signals regarding the chances of an August
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
rate rise. The benchmark FTSE 100 inched up by 0.4% to 7,603.
Dow Jones
0.8
182
24,357
On domestic front, Indian shares fell modestly on Thursday to snap a two-day
Nasdaq
1.1
84
7,586
winning streak as caution crept in ahead of the July 6 deadline, when U.S. tariffs on
FTSE
0.4
30
7,603
Chinese goods are due to take effect The BSE Sensex dropped 0.2% to 35,575 .
Nikkei
0.7
145
21,692
News Analysis
Hang Seng
(0.4)
(116)
28,066
Banks finalise inter-creditor agreement to fast track NPA resolution
Shanghai Com
(0.7)
(20)
2,714
Addition to top picks - Yes Bank, RBL Bank and Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,016
688
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
1,614
1,110
Unchanged
145
77
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
2,883
Top Picks
NSE
26,064
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
649
867
33.5
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
625
720
15.3
FII
1,074
245
(4,594)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Accumulate
301
410
14.9
*MFs
2,353
8,907
68,279
Bata India
Others
Buy
835
948
13.1
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
406
589
45.0
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
IL&FSTRANS
44
9.0
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
GATI
84
7.1
ReadingExpectations
FSL
69
6.1
Jul 06, 2018
US
Unnemployment rate
3.80
3.80
Jul 06, 2018
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
223.00
195.00
NETWORK18
43
4.8
Jul 10, 2018
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
1.80
NAUKRI
1222
4.8
Jul 10, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
14.85
Jul 11, 2018
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
1.80
1.90
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Events on Pg7
HATHWAY
21
-15.4
DEN
67
-10.7
HCC
11
-8.3
IDBI
48
-7.0
SHRIRAMCIT
1939
-6.5
As on July 05 2018
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
News Analysis
Banks finalise inter-creditor agreement to fast track NPA resolution
With a view to fast track NPA resolution, bankers on Thursday finalised the inter-
creditor agreement (ICA) framework that envisages effective communication
among lenders.
The ICA mechanism is expected to be enforced this month itself.
The non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking sector crossed Rs 9 trillion at
end-December 2017 and the RBI has warned of further worsening of the situation.
The agreement, a part of Project Sashakt, will be taken to boards of
respective banks and would be cleared in couple of days, said PNB non-executive
chairman Sunil Mehta after the meeting.
The meeting called by Indian Banks Association was also attended
by Finance Minister Piyush Goyal, who had accepted the report of the Sunil Mehta
Committee earlier this week.
The agreement, a part of Project Sashakt, will be taken to boards of
respective banks and would be cleared in couple of days, said PNB non-executive
chairman Sunil Mehta after the meeting. The meeting called
by Indian Banks Association was also attended by Finance Minister Piyush Goyal,
who had accepted the report of the Sunil Mehta Committee earlier this week
Addition to Top Picks
Yes bank
CMP: `349
Tgt: `418
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans and cross-selling would propel
fees income. We expect YES to grow its advance much higher than industry and
improvement in asset quality to support profitability.
RBL Bank
CMP: `564
Tgt: `670
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below
peers level ROA (1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin expansion and lower credit
cost.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
CMP: `615
Tgt: `780
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is
well placed to face the challenging generic markets, given its focus on achieving
growth through productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue & net profit CAGR
of ~13% & ~8% resp. during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s its peers and
own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Economic and Political News
India may invest around Rs 16.6 bn to buy 70% in Sri Lankan ghost airport
Trai issues changes to interconnect regulations, tweaks norms
City gas distribution licensing: India expects multiple bids on July 10
In order to fund loan waiver, Karnataka hikes tax on liquor, petrol, diesel
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Corporate News
BHEL to partner Ukraine's Zorya for overhaul of warship turbines
Paytm, Future Group, Flipkart plan $100 mn content push to take on Amazon
Fortis Healthcare denies granting brand ownership to Dehradun firm
PNB to conduct fresh valuation of Mallya's assets, says MD Sunil Mehta
NGT rejects Vedanta's interim request to reopen its copper smelter
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,244
649
867
33.5
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,590
625
720
15.3
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,74,681
272
416
53.2
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,183
406
589
45.0
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,734
304
475
56.3
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,377
507
851
67.8
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,82,101
9,339
10,619
13.7
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,865
346
655
89.1
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,379
618
720
16.4
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
28,012
127
218
71.3
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,529
301
410
36.4
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,670
735
1,016
38.2
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,52,954
2,123
2,315
9.0
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,12,788
910
1,050
15.3
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,793
1,005
1,230
22.3
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
Bata India
10,634
835
948
13.5
~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to new product launches, higher number of stores
addition and focus on women’s high growth
segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
29,532
1,151
1,764
53.2
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing power
and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over FY18-
20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
20,036
212
350
65.1
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment.
GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,178
800
1,020
27.6
revenue over the next few years mainly led by
uptick in demand from user industries and it is
also expecting to increase its share of non-GL
business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian
Pharmaceutical companies, is well placed to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus
on achieving growth through productivity.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,327
615
780
26.8
Aurobindo will report net revenue & net profit
CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp. during FY2018-
20E. Valuations are cheap V/s its peers and own
fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees income.
Yes Bank
80,423
349
418
19.7
We expect YES to grow its advance much higher
than industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR of
35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA (1.2%
RBL Bank
23,730
564
670
18.8
FY18) to expand led by margin expansion and
lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,571
268
360
34.1
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,403
1,610
2,178
35.3
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,657
2,090
2,500
19.6
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,710
221
395
78.7
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
29,218
146
210
43.4
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 06, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Jun
3.80
3.80
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Jun
223.00
195.00
Jul 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
May
1.80
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jun
14.85
Jul 11, 2018
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jun
1.80
1.90
Jul 12, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jun
1.00
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
20.18
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
May
4.90
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jun
0.20
0.20
Jul 13, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
12.60
10.80
Jul 16, 2018
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
6.80
6.50
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.43
7:30 AMChina
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
6.80
6.70
Jul 17, 2018
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Jun
(0.09)
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jun
(7.70)
Jul 18, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
1,301.00
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
1,350.00
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jun F
2.00
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.40
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Jul 25, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
8.5
10.0
9.0
9.1
7.3
7.5
8.0
7.0
9.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
7.0
6.0
6.8
4.8
4.6
4.9
7.0
6.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
5.6
4.0
6.0
3.0
1.8
5.0
2.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.3)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
3.50
0.0
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
74,743
(4.9)
(11.7)
20.5
Russia
Micex
4,484
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
10,770
1.5
4.1
11.8
China
Shanghai Composite
2,759
(11.6)
(13.7)
(14.3)
South Africa
Top 40
51,374
0.5
7.5
11.8
Mexico
Mexbol
47,319
4.6
(0.3)
(5.4)
Indonesia
LQ45
908
(1.9)
(12.8)
(5.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,688
(3.9)
(9.1)
(4.9)
Thailand
SET 50
1,073
(7.6)
(10.0)
5.5
USA
Dow Jones
24,175
(1.9)
0.6
12.6
UK
FTSE
7,573
(2.2)
7.7
3.2
Japan
Nikkei
21,717
(3.4)
1.5
7.4
Germany
DAX
12,318
(2.2)
4.5
1.0
France
CAC
5,321
(1.4)
2.0
4.7
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 5 July, 2018
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
Open
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
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DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
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Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
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Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 06, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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